Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching

Ying CHEN; Haiping HUANG; Xin LI; Sijie CHAI; Jiali YE; Dingzi ZHOU; Tao ZHANG

doi:10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16256

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Acta Academiae Medicinae Sinicae ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 375-381. DOI: 10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16256

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching

Ying CHEN ¹ ,
Haiping HUANG ¹ ,
Xin LI ¹ ,
Sijie CHAI ² ,
Jiali YE ² ,
Dingzi ZHOU ³ ,
Tao ZHANG ¹

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of death in the elderly with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).Methods The case data of death caused by COVID-19 in West China Fourth Hospital from January 1 to July 8,2023 were collected,and surviving cases from the West China Elderly Health Cohort infected with COVID-19 during the same period were selected as the control.LASSO-Logistic regression was adopted to analyze the data after propensity score matching and the validity of the model was verified by drawing the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results A total of 3 239 COVID-19 survivors and 142 deaths with COVID-19 were included.The results of LASSO-Logistic regression showed that smoking(OR=3.33,95%CI=1.46-7.59, P=0.004), stroke(OR=3.55,95%CI=1.15-10.30, P=0.022),malignant tumors(OR=19.93,95%CI=8.52-49.23, P<0.001),coronary heart disease(OR=7.68, 95%CI=3.52-17.07, P<0.001), fever(OR=0.51,95%CI=0.26-0.96,P=0.042), difficulty breathing or asthma symptoms(OR=21.48,95%CI=9.44-51.95, P<0.001), and vomiting(OR=8.19,95%CI=2.87-23.58,P<0.001)increased the risk of death with COVID-19.The prediction model constructed based on the influencing factors achieved an area under the curve of 0.889 in the test set.Conclusions Smoking,stroke,malignant tumors,coronary heart disease,fever,breathing difficulty or asthma symptoms,and vomiting were identified as key factors influencing the death risk in COVID-19.

Key words

coronavirus disease 2019 / influencing factor / LASSO regression / propensity score matching

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Ying CHEN , Haiping HUANG , Xin LI , et al . Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching[J]. Acta Academiae Medicinae Sinicae. 2025, 47(3): 375-381 https://doi.org/10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16256

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