In view of the unclear influence mechanism of meteorological factors on tobacco yield in Zibo and the lack of accurate meteorological basis for cultivation and management, in order to improve tobacco yield and quality and clarify the influence and law of key meteorological factors on tobacco yield, this study was conducted based on the tobacco yield data of Zibo from 2019 to 2022 and the meteorological data of average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, maximum wind speed and extreme wind speed of three national basic meteorological stations ( Boshan, Zichuan and Yiyuan). The Z-score standardization and grey correlation analysis method were used. The effects of these main meteorological factors on the growth stages of tobacco (root extension stage, vigorous growth stage and mature stage) and monthly growth stage (May-September) were analyzed respectively. The results show that precipitation, average temperature and sunshine hours has the greatest correlation with tobacco yield, while the influence of maximum wind speed and extreme wind speed is relatively small. In the root extension stage and the vigorous growth stage, the grey correlation degree between precipitation and tobacco yield is the largest, and the average temperature and sunshine hours has the greatest influence on the growth of tobacco in the mature stage. Based on a monthly analysis of tobacco growth stages, the results indicate that the average temperature in August, precipitation in July, sunshine hours in September, precipitation in June, extreme wind speed in September, and sunshine hours in June exhibit the strongest correlation with tobacco yield, with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.85. This study demonstrates that tobacco yield is synergistically influenced by multiple meteorological factors, and the intensity of these major factors dynamically varies across different growth stages. Precipitation, average temperature, and sunshine duration are key influencing factors throughout the entire growth stage of tobacco. In contrast, the impact of wind speed on tobacco growth increases with the rise in leaf number and expansion of leaf area, reaching its peak during the maturity stage. Finally, based on the analysis of the results, we give a series of feasible measures for tobacco planting, which not only provides an important scientific theoretical basis for agricultural meteorological services and tobacco planting management, but also lays the foundation for improving tobacco yield.