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Characteristics of Hail Weather and Forecast-Warning Indicators in Main Nanguo Pear Production Area of Anshan
ZHANGXin, HANYanfeng
Journal of Agriculture ›› 2026, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (8) : 67-74.
PDF(2544 KB)
PDF(2544 KB)
Characteristics of Hail Weather and Forecast-Warning Indicators in Main Nanguo Pear Production Area of Anshan
To improve the forecasting and early-warning capability for hail weather in the main Nanguo pear production area of Anshan, hail occurrence records, Micaps data, NCEP reanalysis data, sounding observations, and Doppler radar data were comprehensively analyzed. Based on hail cases recorded from 2013 to 2022, a conceptual weather model was constructed using synoptic diagnostic methods, and key forecasting and warning indicators were established through systematic analysis of physical parameters and radar echo characteristics. The results show that hail events in the study area mainly occur from April to October, with the highest frequency observed between May to September. A pronounced diurnal variation is evident, with most hail events occurring during the afternoon hours from 12:00 to 17:00 local time. According to the relative influence of different synoptic systems, hail formation in the main production area is primarily associated with the northeast cold vortex pattern and with configurations involving the coupling of surface low pressure systems and upper-level troughs. Prior to hail occurrence, unstable atmospheric conditions are characterized by a K index of no less than 25℃. The Showalter index typically ranges from 1℃ to 2℃ in spring and autumn and from -1℃ to 1℃ in summer. The temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa generally exceeds 26℃. In terms of energy conditions, convective available potential energy is commonly greater than 500 J/kg. Dynamic conditions are marked by a 0-6 km vertical wind shear exceeding 12 m/s. The height of the 0℃ level is mainly distributed between 2 and 4 km, and it can exceed 4 km during July and August. Radar-based warning indicators include the appearance of linear echoes, V-shaped notches, and three-body scattering spikes, with echo intensities greater than 55 dBZ. In vertical cross-sections, the centroid height of strong echoes is higher than the -20℃ level, 50 dBZ echoes extend above the -20℃ isotherm, and the vertically integrated liquid water content reaches or exceeds 30 kg/m2. These indicators provide an important basis for operational hail forecasting and early warning in the Nanguo pear production region. Each indicator exhibits significant monthly variation characteristics, requiring comprehensive judgment in conjunction with seasonal context in practical applications. This study established a meteorological conceptual model and forecasting and early warning indicator system for hail weather in the main production area of Nanguo pear, providing a scientific basis and reference for hail early warning and hail prevention and disaster reduction work in this region.
Nanguo pear / hail / forecast and warning indicators / physical parameters / radar echo characteristics
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