PDF(2741 KB)
Suitability Analysis of Soybean Planting in Hulunbuir Area Under BCC-CSM2-MR Model
YOUSi, JIANGHuyuan, YOUWei, WANGYaying, ZHAOYueji
Chin Agric Sci Bull ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8) : 156-164.
PDF(2741 KB)
Abbreviation (ISO4): Chin Agric Sci Bull
Editor in chief: Yulong YIN
PDF(2741 KB)
Suitability Analysis of Soybean Planting in Hulunbuir Area Under BCC-CSM2-MR Model
Climate is the main natural factor affecting crop production. With the further development of climate change, soybean production will also face significant changes. At present, there are relatively few studies on the impact of climate change on soybeans, and research on adaptation strategies is even scarcer. Therefore, taking the Hulunbuir region as the research object in this study, the climate suitability model for soybean cultivation was constructed by using the data of soybean growth period from 1991 to 2022 and the simulation data of three climate scenarios, namely SSP1-26 (low emission), SSP2-45 (moderate emission), and SSP5-85 (high emission), of the BCC-CSM2-MR model of the CMIP6 model from 2023 to 2052. The changes in the climate suitability for soybean cultivation were analyzed by using methods such as reverse distance weight, natural breakpoints, and linear trend analysis. The results show that under the three climate scenarios of SSP1-26, SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, the area of the height suitability zone in the temperature suitability zone shows a downward trend compared with the previous 30 years. The evolution of precipitation suitability shows scenario differentiation. The high emission scenario has relatively high precipitation suitability, while the medium and low emission scenarios have a slight impact on precipitation suitability. Compared with the first 30 years, the solar suitability zoning under the three climate scenarios shows an increasing trend in the highly suitable zones, and the contribution of solar suitability to the study area will be further enhanced. Overall, under the three climate scenarios, the comprehensive suitability of most areas is between 0.60 and 0.65, and the highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast of Hulunbuir.
| [1] |
许鹤, 刘帅. 生产者补贴政策、区域定位差异及大豆种植户行为响应——来自吉林省、山东省6市12县的证据[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2023, 44(10):201-210.
|
| [2] |
田聪颖. 我国大豆目标价格补贴政策评估研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业大学, 2018.
|
| [3] |
张道业. 气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响及其应对策略[J]. 南方农业, 2015, 9(15):167-168.
|
| [4] |
舒章康, 李文鑫, 张建云, 等. 中国极端降水和高温历史变化及未来趋势[J]. 中国工程科学, 2022, 24(5):116-125.
在全球变暖背景下，我国极端事件频发，了解和掌握极端事件的时空变化，合理预估极端事件的未来趋势，可为制定区域气候变化适应策略提供理论依据。本文利用CN05.1 全国网格气象数据和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的11 种全球气候模式，分析了我国1975—2014 年历史极端降水和高温事件的演变特征，研判了2015—2054 年极端事件的变化情况，提出了应对极端事件的政策建议。结果表明：① 1975—2014 年，全国强降水量呈现由西北向东南依次增加‒ 减少‒增加的空间格局，胡焕庸线以东地区极端降水风险和危险性较大；在选取的两种对比情景下，2015—2054 年，我国极端降水将普遍增多趋强，其中华北和东北地区极端降水事件增幅较大，西北地区强降水量将进一步增加。② 我国1975—2014 年暖夜日数和暖昼日数均呈显著增加趋势，暖夜日数增幅高于暖昼日数增幅；在选取的两种对比情景下，2015—2054 年，我国极端高温事件将显著增加，西北、西南和华南等地区的高温热浪风险增幅最大。为减缓气候变化影响和应对未来极端事件风险，应进一步提升洪涝灾害和高温热浪风险应对和应急管理能力，强化国际合作并因地制宜制定相关适应气候变化战略，以防范和应对全球变暖引起的极端灾害。
|
| [5] |
|
| [6] |
邱晓萍, 张懿, 张咏梅. 全球气候变化对丹参潜在适宜区分布影响[J]. 中国中医药信息杂志, 2022, 29(9):1-10.
|
| [7] |
陈爱莉, 龚伟, 孔芬, 等. 气候变化对杨梅种植适宜区的影响[J]. 扬州大学学报(农业与生命科学版), 2021, 42(4):96-102.
|
| [8] |
张伟萍, 胡云云, 李智华, 等. 气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(7):2514-2524.
祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。
|
| [9] |
|
| [10] |
|
| [11] |
Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
|
| [12] |
王亚萍, 王帅, 丁婧祎, 等. 气候变化背景下全球陆地干湿变化研究综述[J]. 生态学报, 2023, 43(2):475-486.
|
| [13] |
朱美荣. 全球气候变化背景下森林生态系统现状和响应机制研究[J]. 河南农业, 2019(20):42-43.
|
| [14] |
王亚飞, 廖顺宝. 气候变化对粮食产量影响的研究方法综述[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2018, 39(12):54-63.
|
| [15] |
MALHI Gurdeep Singh,
|
| [16] |
李丽娥, 朱晓玲. 我国大豆进口依存度分析及对策[J]. 合作经济与科技, 2023(10):77-80.
|
| [17] |
张智博. 呼伦贝尔市农户大豆种植意愿影响因素分析[D]. 呼和浩特: 内蒙古农业大学, 2020.
|
| [18] |
|
| [19] |
宋燕平, 张琴, 彭慧. 生产者补贴促进大豆增产的因素研究[J]. 安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 32(4):59-65.
|
| [20] |
刘航, 申格, 杨婧, 等. 农业政策调整下大豆种植格局变化对水土资源消耗的影响评估[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2023, 44(6):52-60.
|
| [21] |
郭浩鹏. 全面落实大豆振兴计划促进大豆生产高质量发展[J]. 北方经济, 2021(4):41-44.
|
| [22] |
苏力德, 那顺达来, 王婉婷, 等. 基于地名数据的呼伦贝尔地区聚落空间格局研究[J]. 国土与自然资源研究, 2023(1):79-85.
|
| [23] |
邹星捷, 朱丽华. BCC-CSM2-MR模式对东亚冬季风气候特征的模拟评估[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2023 45(6):182-191.
|
| [24] |
|
| [25] |
李淑萍, 全文杰, 王正, 等. BCC-CSM2-MR全球气候模式对东亚地区降水和气温的模拟评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2023, 41(6):984-996.
|
| [26] |
杨孟娇, 宋艳玲, 徐金霞, 等. 气候变化对东北地区大豆种植气候适宜性影响. 应用气象学报, 2025, 36(3):296-306.
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
