PDF(2311 KB)
Changes in Growth Period of Winter Wheat in Hengshui City and Its Response to Agricultural Meteorological Conditions
WANGKun, WANGRongying, MAMingjun, WUSuozhi, XINGHanchong, LIUXu
Chin Agric Sci Bull ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (20) : 110-117.
PDF(2311 KB)
Abbreviation (ISO4): Chin Agric Sci Bull
Editor in chief: Yulong YIN
PDF(2311 KB)
Changes in Growth Period of Winter Wheat in Hengshui City and Its Response to Agricultural Meteorological Conditions
To investigate the patterns of phenological stage evolution and their driving mechanisms for winter wheat in Hengshui City, this study utilized observational data from agricultural meteorological stations in the region from 1990 to 2020 to establish a comprehensive database covering the entire growth and development process of winter wheat and corresponding meteorological elements. Using a combination of Pearson correlation analysis and multiple regression models, we conducted a quantitative study of the temporal variations in winter wheat phenological stages over the past 30 years and systematically analyzed the trends in major climatic elements during the growing season (October-June of the following year), ultimately clarifying the intrinsic relationship between phenological dynamics and meteorological factors. The analysis results showed that between 1990 and 2020, the average air temperature and average soil temperature throughout the entire growth period of winter wheat in Hengshui City generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. Among these, the upward trends in May air temperature and March soil temperature were the most pronounced, with increases of 0.81℃/10 years (P<0.001) and 1.54℃/10 years (P<0.01), respectively, while the number of hours of sunshine showed a downward trend. The pre-winter growth period of winter wheat consistently exhibited a trend of delay, while the post-winter growth period consistently showed a trend of advancement, resulting in an overall shortening of the growth cycle at a rate of approximately 3.46 days per 10 years. From the perspective of growth stages, there was a significant negative relationship between the growth-day index and sunshine duration during the pre-winter stages, whereas the growth-day index during the post-winter stages showed a clear negative correlation with both air temperature and soil temperature. Among meteorological factors, air temperature has the most significant impact on changes in the growth period, exerting a pronounced negative regulatory effect on the number of growth days. The growth cycle of winter wheat in Hengshui City exhibits a distinct asymmetric pattern characterized by “delayed pre-winter growth and shortened post-winter growth.” The fundamental driving force behind this is the strategy of shortening the growth period to avoid the harmful effects of high temperatures; however, this may also result in reduced tillering and insufficient grain filling due to insufficient time for the accumulation of photosynthetic products.
winter wheat / meteorological factors / growth stage / air temperature / climate change
| [1] |
IPCC. 2021: Climate Change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [M]. Cambridge university press, cambridge, 2021.
|
| [2] |
任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 中国气温变化研究最新进展[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):701.
|
| [3] |
The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution.\n
|
| [4] |
高辉明, 张正斌, 徐萍, 等. 2001—2009年中国北部冬小麦生育期和产量变化[J]. 中国农业科学, 2013, 46(11):2201.
【目的】研究中国北部冬麦区水地组小麦品种农艺性状适应气候变暖的变化规律，为小麦品种改良提供理论依据和指导方法。【方法】利用2001—2009年国家冬小麦区域试验北部冬麦区水地组对照品种的农艺性状和该地区相关气象资料，研究对照品种农艺性状变化规律，并进行农艺性状和气象要素的相关分析。【结果】对照品种出苗日期和成熟日期逐渐推迟；生育期逐渐缩短，且与年平均温度和生育期≥0℃积温呈负相关；生殖生长阶段随着相应期间≥0℃积温的增加而延长；随着气候变暖，千粒重和每公顷产量呈增加趋势。农艺性状相关分析表明，千粒重与每公顷产量呈极显著正相关，生殖生长阶段与每公顷产量呈较强正相关；多元线性回归分析表明，株高和千粒重2 性状决定了产量变异的95.7%。【结论】气候变暖对北部冬麦区冬小麦生长发育有较强的影响，选育生育期较短，但生殖生长阶段较长，千粒重大的高产品种是北部冬麦区未来适应气候变暖的品种改良方向。
|
| [5] |
侯学会, 隋学艳, 姚慧敏, 等. 中国北方麦区冬小麦物候期对气候变化的响应[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2019, 39(2):202.
|
| [6] |
国家气象局. 农业气象观测规范[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1993.
|
| [7] |
Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.
|
| [8] |
Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha(-1) year(-1), except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.
|
| [9] |
崔耀平, 秦耀辰, 肖登攀, 等. 中国夏玉米和冬小麦生育期对历史及未来水热条件的响应[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2018, 34(4):101-107.
|
| [10] |
马倩倩. 未来气候变暖情景下北部冬麦区冬小麦生育期演变趋势预测分析[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2021, 41(6):762-770.
|
| [11] |
檀艳静, 杨慧洁, 李辉. 1981—2019年气候变化对河南省冬小麦生育期的影响分析[J]. 山东农业科学, 2020, 52(12):30-38.
|
| [12] |
袁静, 郑学山, 胡鲲, 等. 潍坊市未来气候变化及其对小麦生育期和产量的影响研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(36):271-274.
为研究潍坊市未来气候变化趋势，分析其对当地小麦生产的影响，利用区域气候模式PRECIS对2021—2050年潍坊市气温及降水量进行模拟，并将气象数据输入作物模型，对未来气候变化下小麦的生长状况进行模拟。结果表明，未来潍坊市将会出现气温升高、降水增多的趋势；气候变暖会导致潍坊市小麦生育期提前，产量降低；若考虑CO<sub>2</sub>的肥效作用，小麦会增产。
|
| [13] |
陈克敏, 李月英, 岳海旺, 等. 气象因子对黑龙港地区夏玉米产量的影响分析[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2022, 61(S1):140-143.
|
| [14] |
郭建平. 气候变化对农业气候资源有效性的影响评估[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2016.
|
| [15] |
中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化蓝皮书(2023)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2023.
|
| [16] |
张新刚. 气候变暖对豫北地区冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响——以河南省沁阳市为例[J]. 中国农学通报, 2025, 41(3):98-106.
气候要素是影响作物生长发育的主要因子，对作物的生长发育、产量和品质有重要影响。为探讨豫北地区气候要素变化特征及对冬小麦生产的影响，利用河南省沁阳市1984—2022年冬小麦农业气象定位观测资料，结合同期气象观测资料，利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、HP滤波和相关分析等方法研究了冬小麦生育期内气候要素变化特征及对气候产量的定量影响。结果表明，1984—2022年间，冬小麦生育期内气温呈显著波动上升趋势，气候倾向率为0.35℃/10 a(P<0.05)，生育期内气温存在明显的年代际变化特征，生育期气温在1994年出现突变；39 a来，≥0℃积温增加，气候倾向率为53.5℃/10a(P>0.05)，突变点在2010和2021年；生育期内降水量和日照时数呈波动减少趋势，线性拟合倾向率分别为13.4 mm/10 a(P>0.05)和-43.0 h/10 a；受气候变暖影响，冬小麦生长季持续天数极显著缩短，产量受气候因子的影响较大；在一定的温度范围内，冬小麦气候产量随气温升高而增加，气温每升高1℃，气候产量增加14.53 g/m2，生育期内适宜≥0℃积温阈值为2281℃，不同生育期气候因子对冬小麦气候产量的影响效应存在差异，分蘖期—越冬开始期、孕穗期—抽穗期日照时数、孕穗期—抽穗期气温、抽穗期—开花期及全生育期降水量是影响冬小麦气候产量的关键因子，该研究可为区域冬小麦应对气候变化和农业科学决策提供重要参考。
|
| [17] |
孟自力, 闫向泉, 朱倩, 等. 商丘市气候变化对小麦生长发育及产量的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2018, 46(6):139-141.
|
| [18] |
普布多吉, 旦增益嘎, 周刊社, 等. 1985—2022年山南冬小麦生育期对气候变化的响应特征及其驱动机制研究[J]. 江西农业学报, 2025, 37(8):93-101.
|
| [19] |
车少静, 智利辉, 冯立辉. 气候变暖对石家庄冬小麦主要生育期的影响及对策[J]. 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(3):180.
|
| [20] |
成林, 薛昌颖, 李彤霄, 等. 河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2010, 33(3):6-10.
|
| [21] |
李蔓, 房世波, 韩佳昊, 等. 气候变暖对中国三大粮食作物的影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(4):540.
在气候变暖背景下，昼夜非对称性升温和大气CO<sub>2</sub>浓度升高成为气候变化的重要特征与驱动因素。气候变化影响水热资源分布，驱动三大粮食作物（小麦、玉米、水稻）的种植结构、种植界限等发生改变，研究主要粮食作物对气候变暖的响应，对保障粮食安全具有重要意义。基于高密度气象台站资料，采用统计方法分析1990年前、后30 a热量资源变化及其对中国三大粮食作物潜在种植区的可能影响；同时，汇总“大田条件下的自由空气增温实验（Free Air Temperature Increase， FATI）”和“控温控CO<sub>2</sub>的开顶箱实验（Open-Top Chamber， OTC）”多站点试验结果，结合文献荟萃方法，探讨气候变暖对三大作物生育期和产量的影响。 结果表明：1）中国农业热量资源总体在增加，农耕期持续天数和积温显著上升，无霜期延长；极端高温日数普遍增多，部分地区（如陕甘宁）农耕期极端低温日数亦有所增加，极端气象灾害风险加剧。2）三大作物种植北界发生了程度不一的北移，潜在适宜种植面积增加。3）气候变暖初期利于冬小麦生长，过度升温将致发育提前、霜冻风险上升，春小麦生育期缩短、产量受限；CO<sub>2</sub>浓度升高虽有增产效应，但难以抵消高温带来的不利影响。4）气候变暖通过缩短玉米生育期、减少穗粒数和千粒重，抑制产量形成，夜间增温加剧产量下降；CO<sub>2</sub>浓度升高对玉米生长与产量的作用有限，增温为主导因子。5）单纯增温对早稻产量有抑制作用，对晚稻则有促进作用；早稻增温削弱CO<sub>2</sub>的增产效应，晚稻则表现为协同促进，提升产量。
|
| [22] |
The estimation of optimum temperature of vegetation growth is very useful for a wide range of applications such as agriculture and climate change studies. Thermal conditions substantially affect vegetation growth. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and daily temperature data set from 1982 to 2006 for China were used to examine optimum temperature of vegetation growth. Based on a simple analysis of ecological amplitude and Shelford's law of tolerance, a scientific framework for calculating the optimum temperature was constructed. The optimum temperature range and referenced optimum temperature (ROT) of terrestrial vegetation were obtained and explored over different eco-geographical regions of China. The results showed that the relationship between NDVI and air temperature was significant over almost all of China, indicating that terrestrial vegetation growth was closely related to thermal conditions. ROTs were different in various regions. The lowest ROT, about 7.0 °C, occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the highest ROT, more than 22.0 °C, occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southern China region.
|
| [23] |
葛全胜, 戴君虎, 郑景云. 物候学研究进展及中国现代物候学面临的挑战[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2010, 25(3):310-316.
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
