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Impact of Climate Change on Maize Growth Period and Yield in Xihe County
LIChunyan, XUEYao, JIANGYifan, NANHongjie, HUXingyu
Chin Agric Sci Bull ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (18) : 133-140.
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Abbreviation (ISO4): Chin Agric Sci Bull
Editor in chief: Yulong YIN
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Impact of Climate Change on Maize Growth Period and Yield in Xihe County
To investigate the characteristics of climate change in Xihe County, Gansu Province, and explore its impact on maize growth stages and yield, this study analyzed meteorological and maize observation data from 1991 to 2025. Univariate linear regression, correlation analysis, and climate contribution rate analysis were applied to systematically analyze changes in key meteorological elements during maize growth stages and their effects on growth duration and yield. The findings indicate: (1) Over the past 35 years, the climate during the maize growing season in Xihe County has shown a warming and moistening trend. The average temperature has significantly increased at a rate of 0.5℃ per decade (P<0.05). Although precipitation showed an increasing trend (19.9 mm per decade), it was not significant. Sunshine duration has significantly decreased at a rate of 39.2 hours per decade (P<0.05). (2) Influenced by climate change, maize emergence, milk stage, and maturity have significantly advanced, while the whole growth duration has significantly shortened (-4.5 days/decade, P<0.05). Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between whole growth duration and average temperature (R=−0.39, P<0.05), while correlations with precipitation and sunshine duration were not significant. Water and light factors significantly influenced only specific growth stages: emergence showed a significant negative correlation with precipitation (R=−0.42, P<0.05), and adequate rainfall promoting earlier emergence; while tasseling exhibited a significant negative correlation with sunshine duration (R=−0.45, P<0.05), suggesting that insufficient sunshine may delay tasseling. (3) Actual maize yields showed a significant downward trend from 1991 to 2025, with considerable meteorological yield variability. Key factors limiting meteorological yield included insufficient precipitation during tasseling, insufficient sunshine duration during maturity, and excessive precipitation during maturity. On this basis, it is recommended that local producers in Xihe County should select and breed maize varieties with longer growing seasons and heat tolerance. Special attention should be paid to preventing drought during the tasseling stage and continuous rainy weather during the ripening stage, and measures such as supplemental irrigation and timely drainage should be taken to ensure stable yields.
climate change / maize / growth stage / yield / Xihe County
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An extensive dataset on rice phenology in China, including 202 series broadly covering the past three decades (1980s-2000s), was compiled. From these data, we estimated the responses of growth duration length to temperature using a regression model based on the data with and without detrending. Regression coefficients derived from the detrended data reflect only the temperature effect, whereas those derived from data without detrending represent a combined effect of temperature and confounding cultivar shifts. Results indicate that the regression coefficients calculated from the data with and without detrending show an average shortening of the growth duration of 4.1-4.4 days for each additional increase in temperature over the full growth cycle. Using the detrended data, 95.0% of the data series exhibited a negative correlation between the growth duration length and temperature; this correlation was significant in 61.9% of all of the data series. We then compared the difference between the two regression coefficients calculated from data with and without detrending and found a significantly greater temperature sensitivity using the data without detrending (-2.9 days °C(-1) ) than that derived from the detrended data (-2.0 days °C(-1) ) in the period of emergence to heading for the late rice, producing a negative difference in temperature sensitivity (-0.9 days °C(-1) ). This implies that short-duration cultivars were planted with increase in temperature and exacerbated the undesired phenological change. In contrast, positive differences were detected for the single (0.6 days °C(-1) ) and early rice (0.5 days °C(-1) ) over the full growth cycle, which might indicate that long-duration cultivars were favoured with climate warming, but these differences were insignificant. In summary, our results suggest that a major, temperature induced change in the rice growth duration is underway in China and that using a short-duration cultivar has been accelerating the process for late rice.© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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基于中国玉米种植区内114个农气站1981-2010年的长序列物候观测数据,量化分析了玉米8个连续物候期的时空分异特征和相应的生长阶段长度变化规律。结果表明：1981-2010年间,玉米生育期内平均温度和有效积温(GDD）呈现增加趋势,降水量和日照时数呈现减少趋势。气候变化背景下,玉米物候期发生了显著变化。春玉米物候期以提前趋势为主,包括西北内陆玉米区春玉米、西南山地丘陵玉米区春玉米;夏玉米和春夏播玉米各物候期在不同区域均呈现推迟的趋势,西北内陆玉米区夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度大于黄淮平原夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度。玉米物候期的变化改变了相应生长阶段的长度,中国春/夏/春夏播玉米营养生长期（播种期—抽雄期）呈现不同程度的缩短趋势,而对应的生殖生长期（抽雄期—成熟期）呈现不同程度的延长趋势;春玉米生育期（播种期—成熟期）延长,夏/春夏播玉米生育期缩短。
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