Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040S) and 2071–2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by −0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9–12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

We describe the latest version of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). The archive contains downscaled historical and future projections for 1950-2100 based on output from Phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The downscaled products were produced using a daily variant of the monthly bias correction/spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method and are at 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. Currently, eight variables from five CMIP6 experiments (historical, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) are provided as procurable from thirty-five global climate models.© 2022. The Author(s).

AgERA5 (ECMWF) is a relatively new climate dataset specifically designed for agricultural applications. MERRA-2 (NASA) is also used in agricultural applications; however, it was not specifically designed for this purpose. Despite the proven value of these datasets in assessing global climate patterns, their effectiveness in small-scale agricultural contexts remains unclear. This research aims to fill this gap by assessing the suitability and performance of AgERA5 and MERRA-2 in precision irrigation management, which is crucial for regions with limited ground data availability. The wine-making region of Nemea, Greece, with its complex and challenging terrain is used as a characteristic case study. The datasets are assessed for key weather variables and for irrigation planning, using detailed local meteorological station data as a reference. The results reveal that both products have serious limitations in small scale irrigation scheduling applications in contrast to what was reported in previous studies for other regions. The uneven performance of global datasets in different regions due to lack of sufficient observation data for reanalysis data calibration was also indicated. Comparing the two datasets, AgERA5 outperforms MERRA-2, especially in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. MERRA-2 shows comparable potential in irrigation planning, as it occasionally matches or exceeds AgERA5’s performance. The study findings underscore the importance of evaluating metanalysis datasets in the application area before their use for precision agriculture, particularly in regions with complex topography.

为研究世界最大黄土塬面“董志塬”腹地的陇东塬区典型代表区域——庆阳市西峰区春季气候变化对冬小麦产量形成的影响，利用1985—2020年春季平均气温、降水量、日照时数距平和冬小麦产量资料，分析了春季气候变化特征及其对冬小麦产量形成的丰歉及利弊影响。结果表明，春季平均气温距平随年代增加呈极显著上升趋势，上升速率为1.04℃/10a，增温幅度远高于全球和全国平均水平；降水量距平百分率呈波动减少趋势，减少速率为2.72 mm/10a；日照时数距平百分率呈增加趋势，增加速率为2.45 h/10a；冬小麦产量呈增加趋势，增加速率每10 a为470.14 kg/hm²。用气候产量的丰歉反映冬小麦关键生育期气候资源与其产量形成的匹配程度，36年来匹配较好的丰产年占58%，歉产年占42%；气象条件有利于冬小麦产量形成的年份占53%，不利年份占47%。研究结果可以根据气候变化指导该地区作物布局及农业生产，趋利避害，对促进冬小麦提质增产具有一定的积极作用。

In order to eliminate the limitations of traditional winter wheat yield prediction methods, the prediction models based on machine learning are used to improve the accuracy of winter wheat yield prediction. In this study, by collecting a large amount of domestic literature about wheat growth characteristics, the irrigation amount, fertilization amount, soil nutrient status, planting density, maximum leaf area index (LAImax), maximum aboveground dry matter accumulation (Dmax) and yield (Y) were chosen to develop the learning models. Using the data of the irrigation amount, fertilization amount, soil nutrient status and planting density as the training set, the regression prediction models (Gaussian process regression mode, linear regression model, regression tree mode and support vector machine model) were used to train and learn the data of the LAImax, Dmax and Y, respectively. The results show that the Gaussian regression model has the best precision compared to the other models. The coefficients of determination (R2) of the learning results of the Gaussian regression model for the LAImax, Dmax and Y are 0.9, 0.93 and 0.86, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.57, 1125.1 and 640.41. Based on the data of the irrigation amount, nitrogen application amount, potassium application amount, phosphorus application amount, organic matter content, total nitrogen content, alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen content, available phosphorus content, available potassium content and planting density, the method proposed in this paper can reliably predict the LAImax, the Dmax and Y of winter wheat. The results also have certain reference significance for the yield prediction of other crops.